See the real expected value of any online casino welcome bonus after wagering requirements. Most bonuses are worth less than the headline number — this tool shows you exactly how much.
Enter your bonus terms below. The calculator returns expected value (EV) after wagering requirements, using the standard formula EV = Bonus − (Wagering × Wagered Amount × House Edge).
e.g. 125 for a 125% match. Bonus amount = deposit × match%.
Maximum bonus you can claim. Leave high if there is no cap.
e.g. 35 for "35x wagering."
Most US-facing offshore casinos use "bonus only." Check the T&Cs.
A casino welcome bonus is a deferred reward, not a free gift. To withdraw it, you typically have to wager a multiple of the bonus (or deposit + bonus) at games with a built-in house edge. The expected value of the bonus is therefore:
EV = Bonus − (Wagering × Wagered Amount × House Edge)
Where house edge = 100% − RTP. A 96% RTP slot has a 4% house edge. A "$2,000 bonus with 40x wagering" at a 4% house-edge slot means you wager $80,000 to clear and expect to lose 4% of that ($3,200) along the way — so the bonus is mathematically negative-EV before you start.
Two terms most players miss:
Important: EV is a long-run average, not a guarantee on any individual session. Variance — especially on slots — can be enormous. This tool helps you compare bonuses before accepting; it does not predict outcomes for any single session.