Casino Bonus EV Calculator

See the real expected value of any online casino welcome bonus after wagering requirements. Most bonuses are worth less than the headline number — this tool shows you exactly how much.

Calculator

Enter your bonus terms below. The calculator returns expected value (EV) after wagering requirements, using the standard formula EV = Bonus − (Wagering × Wagered Amount × House Edge).

e.g. 125 for a 125% match. Bonus amount = deposit × match%.

Maximum bonus you can claim. Leave high if there is no cap.

e.g. 35 for "35x wagering."

Most US-facing offshore casinos use "bonus only." Check the T&Cs.

How the Math Works

A casino welcome bonus is a deferred reward, not a free gift. To withdraw it, you typically have to wager a multiple of the bonus (or deposit + bonus) at games with a built-in house edge. The expected value of the bonus is therefore:

EV = Bonus − (Wagering × Wagered Amount × House Edge)

Where house edge = 100% − RTP. A 96% RTP slot has a 4% house edge. A "$2,000 bonus with 40x wagering" at a 4% house-edge slot means you wager $80,000 to clear and expect to lose 4% of that ($3,200) along the way — so the bonus is mathematically negative-EV before you start.

Two terms most players miss:

How to Use This Tool

  1. Find a casino welcome bonus you're considering. Note the match %, max bonus cap, and wagering requirement (e.g., "125% up to $3,750 with 35x wagering on slots").
  2. Enter the deposit amount you plan to actually deposit (not the cap).
  3. Enter the match %, cap, wagering multiplier, and pick the game type you'll play to clear it.
  4. Pick whether wagering applies to "bonus only" or "deposit + bonus" — check the T&Cs of the offer.
  5. Click Calculate. A positive EV means the bonus is mathematically favourable; a negative EV means the wagering requirement & house edge eat more than the bonus itself.

Important: EV is a long-run average, not a guarantee on any individual session. Variance — especially on slots — can be enormous. This tool helps you compare bonuses before accepting; it does not predict outcomes for any single session.

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